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Feb 11, 2026
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NEUTRAL
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McDonald's beat Q4 comps (5.7%) driven by promotions, but Q1 is facing weather headwinds and operating margin guidance (mid-to-high 40s) was merely maintained, not raised. The "beat" was largely driven by one-off promotions (Grimace/Pokemon) rather than structural traffic improvements. With no margin expansion expected, the upside is capped. NEUTRAL. The easy money from the "value menu" trade has been made; execution risk remains for 2026. Consumer spending collapses faster than expected; value menu dilutes margins further. |
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